Alerts & Commentary
11/28
I guess you could say that volatility has returned to the market. Today’s action while positive, certainly wasn’t the kind of action that should change anyone’s mind about the overall market’s current trend, which, at least in the short term, is down…
From a technical perspective…
The 20,40 & 50 day MA’s have all rolled over during the past month with a confirmation down on 11/7. The Dow, Naz & S&P have all been following the 20 Day the last two weeks on it’s steep decline.
The longer term weekly trend, while still generally positive, is vulnerable and the 20 week MA has also rolled over on all 3 averages. In each of the past two sharp corrections this year, the 20 Week trend did not roll over, but now it has and is headed down. Any significant reversal to the upside would require a commited move above the 20 Week in order to break through all of the descending ST MA’s as well.
In addition, today’s big up move was not accompanied by the kind of volume on reversal that accompanied the other two correction bottoms this year. All in all, just a slightly above average volume day.
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All of our SHORT positions are being maintained though some additonal hedges were applied to a few positions today.
Most of our ongoing LONG positions have generally been adjusted to neutral, or reduced, since the Mid-October high and tightly hedged. We are now using the increased market volatility to collect neutral premium where appropriate until some clarity emerges.
Bottom line, this is probably not a good time to be considering any new long exposure.
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We will be posting more of our positions as time allows over the next couple of weeks, while we continue to work on the site and it’s functionality.
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